Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz Traffic: Prediction Market Reflects Deepening Crisis, Not Recovery by End of May

A Polymarket prediction market on the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to a 7-day average of 60 transit calls by May 31, 2026, currently shows strong odds against a 'Yes' resolution, reflecting the severe and ongoing disruption in the critical waterway.

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The strategic Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global energy and trade, remains in a state of severe disruption, with a Polymarket prediction market indicating a high unlikelihood of traffic returning to a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls by May 31, 2026. With current odds at 0.765 for “No” and just 0.235 for “Yes,” the market's $9.7 million trading volume underscores significant investor belief that normal operations are far from resuming.

The market's resolution hinges on data from IMF Portwatch, which defines a return to 'normal' as a 7-day moving average of transit calls—including container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships—equal to or above 60. This benchmark is considerably lower than the approximately 100 ships per day observed in February 2026, prior to the escalation of regional hostilities. In 2022, over 30,000 vessels annually transited the Strait, averaging around 82 daily.

The current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz began on February 28, 2026, following US and Israeli air strikes against Iran, which triggered retaliatory actions from Tehran. Iran subsequently issued warnings, attacked merchant ships, laid sea mines, and effectively 'closed' the Strait on March 4, threatening any vessel attempting passage. This led to a sharp decline in maritime traffic, with tanker movements initially plummeting by about 70% and eventually nearing zero.

Recent data paints a stark picture of the ongoing paralysis. Daily commercial vessel transits, which stood at approximately 138 on April 30, 2026, collapsed to as few as 9 to 15 by May 2-3, representing up to a 94% reduction. S&P Global reported only 14 ships transiting on April 29, while Anadolu Agency noted just four commercial vessels transiting in a 24-hour period as of May 5. Crucially, IMF Portwatch data for April 19, 2026, recorded a 7-day moving average of merely 12.57 transit calls, far below the 60-vessel threshold required for a 'Yes' resolution.

Geopolitical developments continue to exacerbate the shipping crisis. The US has enforced a naval blockade targeting Iranian maritime traffic since April 13. While a temporary ceasefire on April 8 briefly saw the Strait reopen, confusion persisted, and traffic remained minimal. On May 4, the US launched 'Operation Project Freedom' to escort merchant ships, but this initiative was paused on May 6 to facilitate peace talks. Adding another layer of complexity, Iran, as of May 7, has established a new 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' to approve transits and collect tolls, with shipping intelligence firm Lloyd's List stating the Strait was 'closed' with no transits recorded since May 4. The UN International Maritime Organization reported on May 7 that approximately 1,500 ships and 22,500 mariners are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf due to the blockade.

The severe disruption has extended beyond physical movement, impacting the financial infrastructure of global shipping. War-risk insurance premiums have surged, and several International Group of P&I Clubs members have reportedly withdrawn war risk coverage for Gulf transits, effectively stalling shipping operations.

Given the sustained conflict, ongoing blockades, and the minuscule current traffic levels, the Polymarket odds accurately reflect the immense challenge of achieving a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls by the end of May. A significant and immediate de-escalation, coupled with the complete lifting of restrictions and a rapid return of commercial confidence, would be necessary for a 'Yes' outcome—a scenario that appears increasingly remote as the crisis deepens.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-05-08 18:17 UTC | Polymarket ID: 1809560

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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