Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz Gridlock: Prediction Market Heavily Favors Continued Shipping Disruption Through May

A Polymarket prediction market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 31 is trading with a strong bias towards 'No,' reflecting the severe and ongoing disruption to commercial shipping in the vital waterway.

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— 3 min read

The prediction market on Polymarket, asking whether "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?", currently reflects a grim outlook for maritime trade in the critical chokepoint. With current prices at 'Yes' 0.225 and 'No' 0.775, participants are heavily betting against a swift normalization of transit calls, aligning with recent reports of significant escalation in regional tensions and a near-total halt to commercial shipping.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most strategically important waterways, through which a significant portion of global oil and liquefied natural gas passes. Its unimpeded flow is crucial for global energy markets and supply chains.

However, the situation on the ground, as of early May 2026, is far from normal. Multiple sources indicate a severe disruption, with commercial vessel traffic plummeting to unprecedented lows. As of May 8, 2026, reports suggest zero commercial vessels have exited the Strait for several days, signaling a complete paralysis of commercial traffic. S&P Global Commodities at Sea reported only nine ships transiting on May 3, a sharp decline from 21 on May 1. Kpler's ship-tracking data further indicates a 70% drop in commercial ship traffic. For context, prior to the recent escalation in late February, approximately 138 vessels transited the Strait daily.

The primary drivers of this severe disruption are multifaceted:

  • Escalating Conflict: Ongoing military confrontations between the U.S. and Iran, including direct attacks on U.S. Navy destroyers and retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites, have created an extremely hazardous environment for shipping.
  • U.S. Blockade: The U.S. initiated a naval blockade on April 13, targeting vessels entering and exiting Iranian ports and those carrying sanctioned oil, further restricting movement.
  • Iranian Control Measures: Iran has attempted to assert formal control over the waterway, establishing a new "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" to approve transits and collect tolls, a move considered by maritime law experts to violate international law. Iran has also seized commercial vessels.
  • Insurance and Rerouting: The heightened risk has led to a surge in war risk insurance premiums, with many insurers pulling coverage, making transit financially unfeasible. Major shipping lines, including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd, have halted transits, rerouted vessels, or instructed them to seek shelter.
  • Trapped Vessels: The severe restrictions have resulted in an estimated 1,500 ships and 20,000 crewmen being trapped in the Persian Gulf, unable to reach the open sea. Kpler data shows 81% of container vessels caught inside are still waiting.

Diplomatic efforts, including ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan, have been fragile and have not led to a sustained reopening of the Strait. While there were brief periods of announced ceasefires and discussions about allowing "non-hostile vessels," clarity on passage criteria remains elusive, and commercial navigation is still greatly restricted.

The resolution source, IMF Portwatch, provides crucial data. As of April 19, 2026, the daily transit calls were reported at 4.00, with a 7-day moving average of 12.57. This figure is dramatically below the 60 transit calls threshold required for the "Yes" outcome. Given the current geopolitical climate and the near-complete cessation of commercial traffic, a rebound to a 7-day moving average of 60 or above within the remaining days of May appears highly improbable. The market odds strongly reflect this reality, with participants pricing in a high probability that the Strait of Hormuz will not see traffic return to normal levels by the end of the month.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-05-10 06:17 UTC | Polymarket ID: 1809560

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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