Polymarket

Yankees Favored in Polymarket Ahead of Doubleheader Opener Against Pirates

The New York Yankees are strong favorites on Polymarket for their afternoon clash against the Pittsburgh Pirates, driven by a significant pitching advantage and recent offensive prowess.

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— 3 min read

The prediction market on Polymarket for the MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Yankees, scheduled for July 22 at 1:35 PM ET, shows a clear lean towards the Bronx Bombers. With over $750,000 in trading volume, the market currently prices the New York Yankees at 0.645 (64.5% implied probability) to win, while the Pittsburgh Pirates sit at 0.355 (35.5% implied probability).

This market focuses on the first game of a pivotal doubleheader at Yankee Stadium, a makeup for Tuesday's rainout. The game holds significance for both clubs, though for different reasons. The Yankees, with a 56-44 record, are battling for the AL East lead, just two games behind the Tampa Bay Rays. The Pirates, at 52-49, are tied for the final National League Wild Card spot, 11.5 games adrift in the NL Central.

The primary driver behind the market's strong favoring of the Yankees appears to be the pitching matchup. New York ace Gerrit Cole (3-5, 3.93 ERA) is slated to start against Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller (6-7, 5.14 ERA). While Cole's 3.93 ERA is his highest since 2017 following his return from Tommy John surgery, he has shown signs of regaining form, with 21 strikeouts and only 2 walks over 17.1 innings in July, and is seeking his third consecutive quality start.

Conversely, Mitch Keller has endured a challenging season, reflected in his 5.14 ERA across 19 starts. His recent performance is particularly concerning, with a 6.0 ERA over the last month and an expected ERA (xERA) of 6.47, suggesting his struggles are well-deserved. Analysts point to his propensity for hard contact and home runs, allowing 2.57 homers per nine innings in the past month. Against top-tier offenses, Keller has an alarming 8.72 ERA.

Offensively, both teams have shown flashes. The Yankees' bats are considered "red hot," especially at home, and they notably won the series opener 8-5 on July 20, fueled by two home runs from Jazz Chisholm Jr., who is hitting .368 over his last five games. The Yankees rank eighth in home runs and seventh in Isolated Power (ISO) against right-handed pitching in July. The Pirates, despite Keller's struggles, have seen a significant offensive turnaround in 2026, moving from one of the league's worst to being tied for first in runs scored. They boast 10 players with an OPS+ of 100 or better and have adopted a more aggressive approach at the plate, swinging at the first pitch 34.1% of the time, fifth-most in MLB.

Adding another layer to the analysis, weather forecasts for Yankee Stadium predict temperatures in the mid-80s with strong winds blowing out, which typically favors offensive production. This could potentially mitigate some of the pitching disparity, particularly against a struggling Keller, and contribute to a higher-scoring affair, as some betting experts are also favoring the 'Over' on total runs.

The Polymarket odds, reflecting a 64.5% chance for the Yankees, align closely with traditional sportsbooks, where New York is often listed as a -170 favorite, translating to an implied probability of approximately 62.96%. This consensus underscores the perceived advantage for the Yankees in this opening game, primarily due to the stark contrast in the starting pitching matchup and their recent offensive momentum.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-07-22 18:17 UTC | Polymarket ID: 2946122

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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