Polymarket

US Open ATP Final: Zverev Favored on Polymarket as Shelton Chases History

The Polymarket prediction market for the US Open ATP final between Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton shows Zverev as the favorite, reflecting his dominant head-to-head record and Grand Slam experience, despite Shelton's impressive run and home-crowd advantage.

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— 3 min read

The tennis world's attention is fixed on Arthur Ashe Stadium today, September 13, 2026, as Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton clash in the US Open ATP men's singles final. This high-stakes encounter is also the subject of a significant prediction market on Polymarket, currently showing Alexander Zverev with a 0.585 probability of winning, compared to Ben Shelton's 0.415. The market, boasting a trading volume of $988,119, highlights the keen interest in who will lift the coveted trophy.

Market Dynamics and Key Developments

This Polymarket resolves to 'Alexander Zverev' if the German advances, and 'Ben Shelton' if the American emerges victorious. The market's structure accounts for various scenarios, including match cancellations or retirements, ensuring a clear resolution. The current odds reflect a prevailing sentiment that favors the more experienced Zverev, but Shelton's electrifying performance throughout the tournament has kept the market competitive.

Alexander Zverev, the No. 1 seed, enters his sixth major final, a testament to his consistent elite-level play. His 2026 season has been stellar, featuring a French Open title and a runner-up finish at Wimbledon, making this his third Grand Slam final appearance of the year. Zverev's path to the final at Flushing Meadows saw him overcome shaky early rounds, including two five-setters, before finding dominant form, not dropping a set in his last four matches. He holds a commanding 5-0 career head-to-head record against Shelton, having won 10 of their 11 sets played across previous encounters, though none were Grand Slam matches or in 2026.

Ben Shelton, the No. 8 seed, is making his maiden Grand Slam final appearance. His journey has been nothing short of historic, marked by a memorable quarterfinal upset over defending champion Carlos Alcaraz and a semifinal victory against compatriot Frances Tiafoe. Shelton is aiming to become the first American man to win a Grand Slam singles title since Andy Roddick in 2003 and the first Black American man to win the US Open since Arthur Ashe in 1968, adding immense historical weight to his quest. This year, Shelton has shown his versatility by winning titles on all surfaces.

Odds Analysis and Expert Opinion

The Polymarket odds of 0.585 for Zverev translate to an implied probability of approximately 58.5%, while Shelton's 0.415 suggests a 41.5% chance. This aligns with traditional sportsbooks, which also list Zverev as the favorite. For instance, SportsLine has Zverev at -152, and PrizePicks shows Zverev with a 1.66x payout compared to Shelton's 2.12x. Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings further support Zverev, giving him a 63.8% chance of victory.

Experts largely point to Zverev's superior experience in major finals and his perfect head-to-head record as significant advantages. Tennis handicapper Jose Onorato, for example, favors Zverev, noting his backhand's ability to counter Shelton's forehand and his stronger return game. However, some analysts highlight Shelton's undeniable momentum and the anticipated fervent home crowd support as potential game-changers. Covers.com's predictions lean towards Shelton winning, albeit at 44%, and strongly suggest the match will go over 3.5 sets (69% probability), indicating a tight contest. USOpen.org also predicts a Shelton victory in four sets. Both players are renowned for their powerful serves, leading the tournament in aces, which could lead to multiple tiebreakers, an area where Zverev has historically excelled against Shelton.

As the final unfolds, the Polymarket will serve as a real-time indicator of shifting perceptions and confidence in what promises to be a captivating conclusion to the 2026 US Open.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-09-13 18:16 UTC | Polymarket ID: 4490892

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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