Polymarket

US Open ATP: Alcaraz Heavily Favored Against Paul in Round of 16 Clash

Carlos Alcaraz enters his US Open ATP Round of 16 match against Tommy Paul as a strong favorite, with Polymarket odds reflecting his dominant 2026 season and impressive comeback from injury.

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New York, NY – The highly anticipated US Open ATP Round of 16 clash between defending champion Carlos Alcaraz and American hopeful Tommy Paul, scheduled for Sunday, September 6, 2026, at 2:00 PM ET on Arthur Ashe Stadium, has generated significant interest in prediction markets. Polymarket's 'US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz' market is currently pricing Carlos Alcaraz at 0.805 (80.5% implied probability) to advance, while Tommy Paul sits at 0.195 (19.5%), indicating a strong market consensus favoring the Spaniard. The market has seen a substantial trading volume of $767,931, underscoring the high stakes and public engagement surrounding this marquee matchup.

Carlos Alcaraz, currently ranked world No. 3, has had an exceptional 2026 season despite a significant setback. He returned to competition at the US Open after a five-month layoff due to a wrist injury, his first singles appearance since mid-April. Concerns about his form have largely dissipated, as Alcaraz has progressed through the tournament with commanding victories over Roman Safiullin, Jaime Faria, and Yibing Wu, dropping only one set in the process. Prior to his injury, Alcaraz had already claimed two titles in 2026, including the Australian Open, boasting an impressive 25-3 overall record and a perfect 10-0 in Grand Slam matches this year. He has expressed confidence in his recovery, stating, "To be honest, I'm better than I thought" and feeling his level improving with each match.

Tommy Paul, ranked world No. 21, enters the Round of 16 after a more arduous path. The American has dropped sets in his first two matches and endured a grueling five-set battle against Alexander Bublik in the third round. While Paul has achieved a solid 39-16 record this season, including one title win in Houston, and holds a respectable 3-2 record against Top 10 opponents in 2026, his Grand Slam quarterfinal drought at the US Open continues, having reached this stage for the third time without advancing further.

The head-to-head record between these two players heavily favors Alcaraz, who leads 6-2. Although Paul secured two of those victories on North American hard courts in 2022 and 2023, Alcaraz has dominated their recent encounters, winning their last five consecutive tour-level matches. Their most recent meeting at the 2026 Australian Open saw Alcaraz triumph in straight sets.

Market odds reflect this historical dominance and Alcaraz's current form. The significant lean towards Alcaraz suggests that traders believe his Grand Slam pedigree and rapid return to elite form outweigh any lingering concerns about his wrist injury or Paul's home-court advantage. While Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings project Alcaraz to win 63.5% of the time, slightly lower than the Polymarket's implied probability, some analysts suggest that Paul could still make the match competitive. Expert opinions indicate that Paul might be able to capitalize on Alcaraz's potentially less-than-maximum serve velocity due to the injury, making bets on Paul to win at least one set an attractive proposition for some. However, the overwhelming sentiment in the prediction market remains firmly with Carlos Alcaraz to advance to the quarterfinals.

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Market data fetched at 2026-09-06 18:16 UTC | Polymarket ID: 4233602

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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