Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Unlikely to Normalize by April's End Amid Escalating Tensions

A Polymarket prediction market indicates a strong consensus that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-conflict levels by April 30, 2026, with current IMF Portwatch data showing a dramatic decline in transit calls.

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— 3 min read

The Polymarket prediction market, with a substantial trading volume of over $24 million, is currently reflecting a bleak outlook for the normalization of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of April 2026. The market, which resolves to “Yes” if the IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above 60, shows a stark contrast in sentiment, with “Yes” trading at just 0.065 (6.5%) and “No” at 0.935 (93.5%).

This market's focus on the Strait of Hormuz underscores the waterway's critical importance. Annually, over 30,000 vessels traverse this chokepoint, which, in 2022, accounted for approximately 20% of global oil production and 80% of the Persian Gulf region's oil exports. A 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls represents a return to a level considered 'normal' before the recent disruptions.

However, recent developments in the Middle East have severely impacted maritime activity. The Strait of Hormuz has been largely blocked by Iran since February 28, 2026, following a military conflict involving the United States and Israel. This has led to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issuing warnings, conducting 21 confirmed attacks on merchant ships, and reportedly deploying sea mines. On March 27, the IRGC explicitly closed the strait to vessels associated with the U.S., Israel, and their allies, leaving an estimated 20,000 mariners and 2,000 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf.

The impact on shipping traffic has been immediate and severe. Prior to the conflict, approximately 138 vessels transited the Strait daily. By April 20, 2026, traffic had plummeted by an estimated 95%. Specific daily counts reveal the dramatic decline: only 6 transits were identified by mid-afternoon on April 20, and just 2 completed transits on April 21. On April 16, only 3 identifiable transits were recorded.

Crucially, the latest available data from IMF Portwatch, the designated resolution source for this market, shows the 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz at a mere 6.57 as of April 12, 2026. This figure is dramatically below the 60-call threshold required for the market to resolve to “Yes.”

While there were brief periods of reported re-opening or ceasefire attempts, such as around April 8, Iran subsequently re-closed the strait, citing US actions. These short-lived reprieves have not translated into a sustained increase in traffic. The ongoing disruption has had far-reaching consequences, triggering a global fuel crisis, significant increases in oil prices, and substantial rerouting of shipping, leading to longer transit times and elevated cargo rates. Cumulative crude and condensate supply losses reached 430 million barrels by April 10, 2026.

The overwhelming odds on Polymarket, coupled with the consistently low transit call data from IMF Portwatch and the persistent geopolitical tensions, strongly suggest that the Strait of Hormuz will not see its traffic return to a 7-day moving average of 60 by the end of April 2026. Market participants are clearly betting against a swift resolution to the severe maritime disruptions in this vital global chokepoint.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-04-23 00:18 UTC | Polymarket ID: 1540766

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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