Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Remains Stymied as May 31st Deadline Nears, Polymarket Odds Reflect Grim Reality

A Polymarket prediction market betting on the return to normal shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, is overwhelmingly priced for a 'No' resolution, as recent data from IMF Portwatch shows transit calls remain drastically low amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.

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— 3 min read

The prediction market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?' on Polymarket, with a substantial trading volume of over $32 million, is poised for a 'No' resolution as the May 31, 2026, deadline arrives. The market's resolution hinges on whether the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz reaches 60 or above by this date. Current market prices, with 'Yes' at a mere $0.0025 and 'No' at $0.9975, strongly indicate that participants do not expect a return to normal traffic levels.

This pessimistic outlook is firmly rooted in the severe and ongoing disruption to shipping in the critical waterway. The Strait of Hormuz has been largely blocked since February 28, 2026, following a significant escalation in geopolitical tensions marked by a US-Israeli air war against Iran and subsequent retaliatory actions by Tehran. These actions have included missile and drone attacks, warnings against passage, boarding of merchant ships, and the laying of sea mines. Furthermore, the United States has imposed its own naval blockade on Iranian ports since April 13, 2026, contributing to a "dual blockade" scenario.

Recent data from IMF Portwatch, the designated resolution source, underscores the continued paralysis of commercial shipping. As of May 24, 2026, the 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz stood at a mere 6.00. Just days earlier, on May 17, 2026, this average was reported as 6.29. These figures are a stark contrast to the market's 'normal' threshold of 60 and represent a dramatic reduction from pre-crisis levels. On May 24, for instance, only 4 vessels transited the Strait, which is a mere 4% of the typical daily volume of 95 vessels. Across April, traffic through Hormuz averaged approximately 5% of its pre-war levels.

Experts and analysts have consistently described the Strait of Hormuz as "effectively closed" to commercial shipping due to the combination of attack risks and the withdrawal of protection and indemnity insurance by major carriers. While there have been some recent reports of a marginal increase in transits, with the U.S. reportedly providing information to aid navigation and some trapped ships exiting the waterway, these sporadic movements are far from indicating a return to normal. One report on May 30 mentioned 20 ships passing through in 24 hours with IRGC Navy coordination, but this still pales in comparison to typical traffic and does not translate to the required 7-day moving average of 60.

The current market odds of 0.9975 for 'No' are a clear reflection of this overwhelming evidence. Market participants have absorbed the latest available data and geopolitical realities, concluding that a rebound to 60 daily transit calls (7-day moving average) by the end of May is highly improbable. The ongoing conflict has created one of the most significant threats to global energy transit in decades, with profound economic repercussions extending far beyond the Middle East.

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Market data fetched at 2026-05-31 06:15 UTC | Polymarket ID: 1809560

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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