Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Remains Stifled as Prediction Market Points to 'No' on Recovery by May 15

A Polymarket prediction market tracking Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic is set to resolve 'No' as recent data from IMF Portwatch and widespread reports indicate a drastic and sustained reduction in transit calls, far below the threshold for recovery.

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— 3 min read

The critical Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a significant portion of global maritime trade, has seen its shipping traffic severely curtailed, leading a Polymarket prediction market to overwhelmingly favor a 'No' resolution on whether transit calls would return to normal by May 15, 2026. With the market's deadline upon us, the latest available data and ongoing geopolitical tensions suggest no rebound to pre-crisis levels.

The prediction market, with a trading volume exceeding $16 million, was designed to resolve to “Yes” if the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz reached or exceeded 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. However, current prices of 0.0015 for “Yes” and 0.9985 for “No” reflect a near-certain expectation that this condition has not been met.

Indeed, recent data from IMF Portwatch, the designated resolution source, paints a stark picture. As of May 10, 2026, the daily transit calls (7-day moving average) for the Strait of Hormuz stood at a mere 1.57. This figure is a dramatic decrease from historical averages, with reports indicating that traffic plummeted from around 100 ships per day in February 2026 to an average of 6 to 7 ships per day between March 1 and April 12, 2026. Other data points from April 19, 2026, showed a 7-day moving average of 12.00 transit calls, still far from the 60-vessel threshold.

The precipitous decline in shipping activity is directly linked to the "Iran War" which commenced around February 28, 2026. The Strait of Hormuz has been described as "effectively closed" since early March 2026, with traffic reduced to approximately 5% of its normal volume. News outlets have highlighted that shipping traffic has dropped by over 90% since the conflict began. Adding to the complexity, a U.S. blockade initiated on April 13, 2026, targeted vessels entering and exiting Iranian ports, further constraining maritime movement.

Reports from early May 2026 indicated that "open transits have fallen to near zero vessels per day" since May 6, 2026, due to renewed tensions and security concerns. Major shipping companies, including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd, have suspended transits through the strait, leading to thousands of vessels and mariners reportedly being trapped in the Gulf.

The overwhelming consensus from both market participants and available data suggests that the Strait of Hormuz has not returned to normal traffic levels by the May 15 deadline. The 7-day moving average of transit calls remains significantly below the 60-ship benchmark, solidifying the market's expectation for a 'No' resolution.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-05-15 00:16 UTC | Polymarket ID: 2054133

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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