Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Remains Crippled as May Deadline Nears, Polymarket Odds Reflect Dire Reality

A Polymarket prediction market on the return to normal shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 is overwhelmingly signaling 'No,' with recent data and escalating tensions confirming severe disruptions.

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— 3 min read

As the May 31 deadline approaches for a Polymarket prediction market concerning the normalization of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, all indicators point to a decisive 'No' resolution. The market, which has seen over $30 million in trading volume, is set to resolve to 'Yes' only if the IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above 60 for any date up to the end of May 2026. With current market prices at a stark 0.0055 for 'Yes' and 0.9945 for 'No,' participants are clearly anticipating continued disruption.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes, has been severely affected by the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran, which began on February 28, 2026. Iran has largely blocked the strait, issued warnings, and engaged in actions against commercial ships, including laying sea mines. The United States has responded with its own blockade of Iranian ports.

Recent data from IMF Portwatch underscores the dire state of traffic. As of May 17, 2026, the 7-day moving average of daily transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz stood at a mere 6.29. This figure saw only a marginal decrease to 6.00 by May 24, 2026. These numbers are drastically below the threshold of 60 transit calls required for a 'Yes' resolution, making a recovery to 'normal' levels by the end of May virtually impossible.

Geopolitical developments in late May have further exacerbated the situation. On May 28, 2026, Iranian state media reported that Iran fired warning shots at four ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz without coordination, forcing them to return. This incident was followed by US strikes on southern Iran after drones were reportedly fired at ships. Earlier, on May 27, 2026, the U.S. Department of the Treasury sanctioned Iran's newly formed 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority,' accusing it of attempting to extort vessels for transit fees to fund the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Efforts to normalize traffic have largely failed. The US-led "Project Freedom," aimed at escorting commercial shipping, was launched on May 4, 2026, but suspended less than 48 hours later on May 5, 2026, after only two US-flagged ships transited and a CMA CGM containership was reportedly hit by missiles. As of May 27, 2026, the US denied restarting these escort operations.

Analysts widely agree that a swift return to normal is not on the horizon. Diplomatic efforts to reopen the strait remain stalled, with Iran demanding an end to blockades and a clear framework for Hormuz governance before broader concessions. Shipping companies, facing increased war-risk premiums and the unreliability of the waterway, have largely rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding significant time and cost to journeys. DHL has forecasted that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will take at least four to six months to normalize.

The current market odds of 0.9945 for 'No' accurately reflect the consensus among participants, who are clearly factoring in the persistent geopolitical tensions, the recent aggressive incidents, and the consistently low transit call data. Barring an unforeseen and dramatic de-escalation and immediate resumption of traffic in the next two days, the market appears set to resolve to 'No,' underscoring the severe and ongoing disruption to one of the world's most vital shipping lanes.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-05-29 00:16 UTC | Polymarket ID: 1809560

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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