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Strait of Hormuz Traffic: Prediction Market Reflects Grim Outlook Amid Renewed Hostilities

A Polymarket prediction market on the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal traffic by July 31 is heavily favoring 'No,' as ongoing conflict and recent closures severely disrupt one of the world's most critical shipping lanes.

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— 3 min read

The vital Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a significant portion of global oil and gas trade, remains in a state of severe disruption, as reflected in a Polymarket prediction market that is overwhelmingly betting against a return to normal traffic by July 31, 2026. The market, with a substantial trading volume of over $15.6 million, will resolve to “Yes” if the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait reaches or exceeds 60 by the end of July. Currently, the “Yes” outcome trades at a mere 0.045, implying a less than 5% chance, while “No” stands at 0.955.

This pessimistic outlook is deeply rooted in the escalating geopolitical tensions and active conflict in the region. A war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which commenced on February 28, 2026, has profoundly impacted maritime activity. Prior to the conflict, the Strait typically saw daily transits ranging from over 80 to more than 130 ships. Some reports even cite an average of around 138 vessels daily. However, since the outbreak of hostilities, traffic has plummeted dramatically.

Initial reports indicated that tanker traffic dropped to "almost nothing" soon after the conflict began. By March 2026, daily transits for non-Iranian vessels had fallen to single digits. IMF Portwatch data for March 9-15, 2026, recorded a 7-day moving average of just 5.857 transit calls, a stark contrast to pre-war levels. By early April, daily vessel crossings had reportedly collapsed by over 95%, with oil tankers "virtually absent".

Recent developments in July 2026 further underscore the severity of the situation. After a brief period of a "cautious restart" following a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran in mid-June, the fragile agreement appears to have unraveled. On July 12, 2026, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again following renewed exchanges of strikes with the United States. While the US maintains that the strait remains open and traffic is flowing, ongoing military actions and Iranian threats have created an extremely hazardous environment for shipping.

Recent data from July 10, 2026, indicates daily crossings through the Strait had sharply declined to just 24, down from 51 on July 8th and 31 on July 9th. These figures are far below the threshold of 60 transit calls required for the market to resolve to “Yes.” Even during the cautious restart in June, crude oil flows only saw a "limited restart from extremely low levels," with the seven-day moving average remaining "close to zero". LNG and fertilizer shipments were also "largely at a standstill".

The market’s overwhelming confidence in a “No” resolution by July 31 is therefore well-founded, given the current daily transit numbers and the highly volatile geopolitical landscape. The target of 60 transit calls, while significantly lower than pre-conflict averages, appears unattainable within the remaining timeframe, especially with Iran's renewed declaration of closure and ongoing military engagements. The reliance on IMF Portwatch data, which itself notes limitations due to GPS jamming and AIS spoofing in the region, adds another layer of complexity to tracking accurate traffic figures.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-07-12 18:16 UTC | Polymarket ID: 2176262

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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