Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz Traffic: Prediction Market Reflects Bleak Outlook for Normalization by June End

A Polymarket prediction market indicates a strong belief that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-crisis levels by June 30, 2026, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and significantly reduced transit calls.

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— 4 min read

The critical Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a significant portion of global energy trade, remains embroiled in severe disruption, with a Polymarket prediction market reflecting a strong consensus that normal traffic levels will not resume by the end of June 2026. The market, with a substantial trading volume of $5,736,978, currently prices a 'No' resolution at 0.715, suggesting a high probability that the 7-day moving average of transit calls will not reach 60 by the specified deadline.

Market Focus: A Barometer of Regional Stability

This Polymarket centers on whether IMF Portwatch will report a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Transit calls encompass various ship types, including container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. The market serves as a real-time barometer of maritime security and geopolitical stability in a region vital to global trade and energy supply.

Current Reality: Traffic at a Near Standstill

Recent data paints a stark picture of the Strait's activity. As of May 10, 2026, IMF Portwatch reported a 7-day moving average of daily transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz at a mere 1.57. Another report, referencing IMF Portwatch data from April 19, 2026, showed the 7-day moving average at 12.00. These figures are drastically below the 60-vessel threshold for the market to resolve 'Yes'. Pre-war traffic through the Strait typically saw over 150 ships per day. Across April 2026, traffic through Hormuz has reportedly run at approximately 5% of its pre-war average. Some reports even indicate traffic running at a "pathetic 3.3% of normal" as of May 8, 2026, with only a handful of vessels observed instead of the usual 60.

Key Factors Driving the Disruption

The severe reduction in traffic stems from an escalating geopolitical crisis. The Strait of Hormuz has been "effectively closed" or "largely blocked" since February 28, 2026, following US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliation. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued warnings, attacked merchant ships, and reportedly laid sea mines. Concurrently, the US has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports since April 13.

Further complicating the situation is the "double-disruption problem," as Houthi forces resumed attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea on February 28, 2026, reversing any prior recovery in Suez Canal transits. This has led to both major Middle Eastern maritime corridors being simultaneously compromised, forcing most major carriers to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit times and significantly increasing costs.

Adding another layer of complexity, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), established on May 5, 2026, has formalized a "pay-to-pass" regime. Vessels are now required to submit extensive declarations and pay tolls reportedly as high as USD 2 million per transit, often settled in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrency.

Expert Outlook and Market Implications

Shipping and logistics experts overwhelmingly anticipate prolonged disruption. DHL Global Forwarding's Middle East and Africa CEO, Tobias Maier, has forecasted 4-6 months for normalization. Broader supply chain planning suggests the current Middle East disruption will persist for at least 3 to 6 months. The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) May 2026 Statement on Monetary Policy outlines "Adverse scenarios" where the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in the near term, with shipping flows resuming from Q1 2027 and normalization taking much longer. Citi also expects "intermittent disruptions" to continue for the next 4-8 weeks, with Iran potentially prolonging the disruption for leverage.

Despite calls from global leaders, including US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, for the Strait to remain open, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister indicated that while the Strait is open for commercial vessels, they "need to cooperate with our navy forces" and Iran is developing a "protocol" to cover navigation safety costs. While some Chinese ships have reportedly been allowed passage under new Iranian protocols, this limited movement does not signify a return to normal.

The current market odds of 0.285 for 'Yes' and 0.715 for 'No' strongly align with the prevailing information. Given the extremely low current transit call numbers, the persistent geopolitical instability, and expert predictions of a protracted disruption extending well beyond June 2026, it appears highly unlikely that the Strait of Hormuz will see its 7-day moving average of transit calls return to 60 by the end of June. The market is clearly pricing in the reality of an enduring crisis in this vital global waterway.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-05-15 06:17 UTC | Polymarket ID: 1971905

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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