Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz Traffic: Market Odds Stack Against Return to Normal by End of May Amid Prolonged Disruption

A Polymarket prediction market shows low confidence in Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returning to normal levels by May 31, 2026, as geopolitical tensions and blockades continue to severely impact transit calls.

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— 4 min read

The Polymarket prediction market, asking whether Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls by the end of May 2026, currently reflects a strong belief that normalcy will not be restored. With current odds at 0.215 for 'Yes' and 0.785 for 'No', traders are overwhelmingly betting against a swift recovery, a sentiment heavily supported by recent developments in the crucial waterway.

The Market and Its Stakes

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date up to May 31, 2026. The Strait of Hormuz is globally significant, acting as the choke point for approximately 20% of the world's daily oil supply and 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, making its disruption a major concern for global energy markets and supply chains.

Key Developments: A Strait in Crisis

The Strait of Hormuz has been under severe strain since late February 2026, following joint US and Israeli military strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliation. This has led to what analysts describe as a "dual blockade" by both the US and Iran, effectively closing the waterway to most international commercial shipping. Prior to the escalation, the Strait typically saw 130-140 vessels transit daily.

However, recent data paints a stark picture of reduced activity. As of April 19, 2026, IMF Portwatch reported a 7-day moving average of just 12.00 transit calls, with daily calls as low as 4.00. Other reports indicate daily transits have plummeted by over 90%, reaching figures as low as 7 or 14 vessels in late April and early May. Hundreds of ships, estimated between 400 and 870 major merchant vessels, are currently stranded or loitering on either side of the Strait, unable to proceed.

Major shipping companies, including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd, have responded by suspending transits through the Strait and rerouting vessels around the longer Cape of Good Hope. This diversion is exacerbated by ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, creating a "dual bottleneck" scenario that further strains global shipping routes.

Compounding the logistical challenges are soaring war risk insurance premiums, which have made commercial transit economically unviable for many operators. Iran has also reportedly imposed tolls exceeding $1 million per vessel for passage.

While there was a brief, fragile ceasefire in early April, the Strait remained effectively closed, with Iran limiting the number of ships crossing. On May 3, 2026, President Donald Trump announced "Project Freedom," an agreement with Iran to allow neutral ships stranded in the Mideast Gulf to depart under US escort, beginning May 6. However, this initiative primarily addresses the backlog of trapped vessels rather than signaling a return to regular commercial traffic.

Market Odds and Expert Outlook

The current Polymarket odds, with a 78.5% chance of 'No', align with expert assessments. The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook, published April 28, 2026, assumes the "most acute disruptions end in May" but forecasts a gradual return to pre-war shipping levels only by late 2026. This explicitly suggests that a return to normal (a 7-day average of 60) by the end of May is unlikely. Furthermore, maritime analysts anticipate that the disruption will persist through the remainder of 2026.

Given the severely depressed transit numbers, ongoing geopolitical tensions, blockades, prohibitive insurance costs, and the rerouting of major shipping lines, the market's skepticism appears well-founded. A rapid rebound to a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls within the next few weeks seems highly improbable, making a 'No' resolution the most likely outcome for this prediction market.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-05-04 00:17 UTC | Polymarket ID: 1809560

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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