Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Market Nears 'No' Resolution as April Deadline Passes Amid Ongoing Disruption

A Polymarket predicting the return to normal shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, is poised for a 'No' resolution, with current odds reflecting severe disruption to the critical waterway throughout Q1 and April 2026.

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— 3 min read

The prediction market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?' on Polymarket, with a substantial trading volume of over $37 million, is heading towards a definitive 'No' resolution. The market, which stipulated a 'Yes' outcome if the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz reached or exceeded 60 by April 30, 2026, currently shows overwhelming odds of 0.9985 for 'No' and a mere 0.0015 for 'Yes'. This pricing reflects the severe and sustained disruption to maritime traffic in the region throughout the specified period.

The Chokepoint Under Pressure

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, is crucial for global energy trade, with approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas transiting through it. The market's resolution criteria of 60 transit calls as a benchmark for 'normal' traffic highlights the economic significance of this waterway. Prior to March 2026, daily transit calls routinely exceeded this threshold.

Escalating Tensions and Plummeting Traffic

However, the situation dramatically deteriorated following the escalation of military conflict in the region, including U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran that began in late February 2026. Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz around March 4, 2026. This led to a drastic reduction in shipping activity. Data from IMF PortWatch indicated that between March 1 and April 12, 2026, the average daily transit calls plummeted to 6 to 7 ships, a stark contrast to the average of around 100 ships per day in February before the conflict escalated. On April 12, 2026, the 7-day moving average stood at a mere 6.57.

Despite a brief, Pakistan-brokered ceasefire on April 8, 2026, which saw Iran declare the Strait 'completely open' on April 17, commercial traffic remained low, and confusion persisted. Further exacerbating the crisis, Iran reportedly fired on at least one tanker and turned back over 20 vessels on April 18, 2026. By April 29, 2026, transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz was still only 20 crossings. Shipping and energy market data confirmed a 90-95% fall in daily vessel transits since late February, dropping from approximately 130 vessels per day to less than 10 at various points in March and early April.

Market Odds Reflect Reality

The current Polymarket odds, heavily favoring 'No', accurately reflect these severe disruptions. Another related Polymarket market, asking for the average number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by the end of April, showed a 94% probability for 0-10 ships and less than 1% for 60+ ships. Major shipping lines like Maersk advised against transit through the Strait as late as April 28, 2026, citing ongoing volatility and a lack of maritime certainty. Reports of GPS jamming, AIS spoofing, and vessels going dark further complicated navigation and safety in the region.

Expert Outlook on Recovery

Expert sentiment from a Dallas Fed Energy Survey conducted in mid-April 2026 also painted a grim picture for a swift return to normalcy. Only 20% of surveyed executives expected traffic to normalize by May 2026, with a significant 39% anticipating recovery by August 2026 and another 26% by November 2026 or later. This indicates a widespread industry expectation of prolonged disruption. Experts also noted that the Red Sea crisis, which has spillover effects on the broader Middle East shipping lanes, had already shattered hopes for normalization of global shipping routes in 2026.

As the resolution date has passed, and given the consistent reporting of drastically reduced traffic and the prevailing geopolitical instability, the Polymarket is set to resolve to 'No', affirming that the Strait of Hormuz traffic did not return to its normal operational levels by the end of April 2026.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-05-01 00:16 UTC | Polymarket ID: 1540766

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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