Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Market Nears 'No' Resolution as April Deadline Passes Amid Ongoing Conflict

A Polymarket prediction market on the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal traffic by the end of April is set to resolve 'No', with current odds reflecting virtually no chance of the 7-day moving average of transit calls reaching the required 60 vessels. Geopolitical tensions and blockades severely

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— 3 min read

The Polymarket prediction market, which queried whether Strait of Hormuz traffic would return to normal by the end of April 2026, is poised for a definitive 'No' resolution. With the April 30 deadline now passed, the market's current price of 0.001 for 'Yes' and 0.999 for 'No' strongly indicates that the specified condition—a 7-day moving average of transit calls (ship arrivals) equal to or above 60, as published by IMF Portwatch—was not met.

This market, which saw a significant trading volume of over $35 million, underscores the severe disruption to global shipping in one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. Prior to the escalation of conflict in early March 2026, daily transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz routinely exceeded 60 vessels, with some estimates putting pre-conflict traffic at 100-120 ships daily.

However, a cascade of geopolitical events, beginning with U.S. and Israeli military operations targeting Iran on February 28, 2026, and subsequent retaliatory actions by Iran, plunged the region into crisis. Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic around March 2, 2026, prompting a dramatic drop in vessel movements. According to IMF PortWatch data, the average number of ships passing through the Strait between March 1 and April 12 was a mere 6 to 7 per day. By April 19, 2026, the 7-day moving average of transit calls reported by IMF Portwatch stood at just 12.00.

Throughout April, attempts at de-escalation proved fragile and short-lived. A temporary ceasefire agreed on April 8 theoretically reopened the strait, but traffic remained minimal. While Iran's foreign minister declared the strait "completely open" on April 17, this was quickly reversed. On April 18, Iran reimposed shipping restrictions, with reports of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps gunboats firing on at least one tanker and turning back over 20 vessels. Concurrently, the U.S. implemented a naval blockade on Iranian ports starting April 13, further complicating transit and leading U.S. CENTCOM to direct 44 vessels to turn around or return to Iranian ports.

By April 29, daily crossings had only recovered to 26 vessels from a low of 7 on March 31. This is a stark contrast to the "normal" level of 60 or more, and a mere fraction of the 3,000 vessels that typically used the strait each month before the conflict. The escalating risks led to sharply elevated insurance premiums and forced many shipping companies to suspend sailings or seek alternative, longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope, significantly increasing transit times and costs.

The Polymarket odds reflected these turbulent developments. After briefly surging to 82% for a 'Yes' resolution on April 17 following the ceasefire announcement, the odds for the April 30 market collapsed to 28% 'Yes' by April 18. By April 30, the probability of normalization by the deadline had plummeted to 0% 'Yes', underscoring the market's consensus on the outcome. The market's implied resolution aligns with expert assessments describing the situation as a "sustained supply shock unlike anything seen since the 1970s oil crises."

As the resolution period for this market concludes, the data from IMF Portwatch and other maritime intelligence sources confirms that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remained severely curtailed throughout April, well below the threshold for normalization. The ongoing geopolitical instability continues to impact global energy markets, with Brent crude prices having surged significantly since the conflict began.

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Market data fetched at 2026-05-02 06:17 UTC | Polymarket ID: 1540766

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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