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Strait of Hormuz Traffic Far From Normalcy as May Deadline Looms, Prediction Market Reflects Grim Outlook

A Polymarket prediction market betting on the return to normal shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, shows overwhelming odds against recovery, reflecting the severe and ongoing disruptions caused by the 'Iran War' and a dual blockade.

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— 3 min read

The critical Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for approximately 20% of the world's daily oil supply and 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) traffic, remains embroiled in severe geopolitical instability, leading a Polymarket prediction market to heavily favor a continued disruption of shipping by the end of May. The market, with a significant trading volume of over $18 million, asks whether the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait will reach 60 or more by May 31, 2026. Current odds stand at a stark 0.0655 (6.55%) for 'Yes' and 0.9345 (93.45%) for 'No,' indicating a widespread belief that normalcy is far from being achieved.

The market's resolution hinges on data published by IMF Portwatch, which itself acknowledges "Trade Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz" as an ongoing event since February 28, 2026, due to attacks on commercial ships. This disruption stems from what has been termed the 'Iran War,' initiated by US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. Following these initial strikes, Iran first restricted passage, and subsequently, a US naval blockade of Iranian ports commenced on April 13. Iran, in turn, reimposed its own restrictions, creating a "dual blockade" scenario.

Prior to the outbreak of hostilities, the Strait of Hormuz typically saw between 125 and 140 vessels transiting daily. However, recent reports paint a grim picture of severely suppressed traffic. In April, vessel transponder data indicated that traffic through Hormuz ran at approximately 5% of its pre-war average. More recently, around May 21, shipping traffic has averaged only about 10 vessels going into and out of the strait daily, according to Reuters analysis of ship tracking data. Some analyses from late March already highlighted a more than 90% drop, from roughly 138 vessels per day to fewer than 10.

While a May 20 report from CGTN, citing Lloyd's List, suggested a "rebound" with 54 ships transiting between May 11 and 17, compared to 25 the previous week, and Windward data showing 19 vessels on May 20, this increase is relative to a near-zero baseline and remains significantly below the pre-conflict levels required to meet the 60-vessel 7-day moving average threshold. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) continues to enforce its blockade, having redirected 94 commercial vessels and disabled four as of May 21, further limiting traffic. Iran has also announced a "controlled maritime zone" and is reportedly levying tolls of up to $2 million per passage, payable in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrency, underscoring its asserted control over the waterway.

International efforts to de-escalate tensions and ensure freedom of navigation are underway, with the UK, France, and 38 partners announcing political support for a multinational military mission on May 12. However, this mission will only commence operations in a "permissive environment," which is currently not the case. Even a joint affirmation by US President Donald Trump and Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping on May 20 for the Strait to remain open and free of tolls has not yet translated into a significant increase in traffic.

Given the sustained geopolitical tensions, the active blockades, and the consistently low daily transit numbers, the prediction market's strong lean towards 'No' appears to be a realistic assessment. The IMF Portwatch's next weekly update, scheduled for Wednesday, May 27, will provide the latest official data, but a dramatic surge in traffic sufficient to push the 7-day moving average to 60 within days seems highly improbable under the current circumstances. IMF Portwatch also cautions users about reports of GPS jamming, AIS spoofing, and vessels "going dark," suggesting the true picture of maritime activity might be even more opaque than reported data.

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Market data fetched at 2026-05-22 00:17 UTC | Polymarket ID: 1809560

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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