Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Far from Normal as May Deadline Looms, Polymarket Favors 'No'

A Polymarket prediction market on the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal traffic by May 31, 2026, is heavily skewed towards 'No,' reflecting ongoing severe disruptions and historically low transit calls amid the 'Iran War.'

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— 3 min read

A Polymarket prediction market asking whether Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls by May 31, 2026, is currently trading with an overwhelming 0.9935 probability for a 'No' resolution. This strong market sentiment is firmly rooted in the severe and ongoing disruption to shipping in the critical waterway since the outbreak of the 'Iran War' in late February 2026.

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global energy and trade, typically sees a high volume of maritime traffic, with pre-war daily transit calls ranging from 70 to over 100 commercial vessels, including approximately 46 tanker crossings daily. However, following the initiation of hostilities and Iran's effective closure of the Strait on March 2, 2026, commercial shipping has plummeted.

Recent data from IMF Portwatch, the designated resolution source for this market, paints a stark picture. As of May 17, 2026, the 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz stood at a mere 6.29. This figure is dramatically lower than the 60 calls required for the market to resolve 'Yes.' Throughout April, traffic through Hormuz ran at approximately 5% of its pre-war average, and across March, the strait saw fewer than two tanker crossings daily.

The sharp decline in traffic is attributed to a combination of factors, including direct attacks on commercial vessels, Iran's seizure of ships, and the withdrawal of war-risk insurance coverage, rendering routine transit commercially unviable for most operators. For instance, Iranian forces seized two container ships, the MSC-Francesca and the Epaminondas, on April 22, 2026. The U.S. has also enforced a naval blockade of Iranian ports since April 13. Reports indicate over two dozen ships have been attacked while attempting to navigate the strait.

Adding to the complexity, Iran has established a "regulated maritime area" and implemented a "multi-tiered mechanism for clearing vessels," further restricting free passage. The United Nations has warned that persistent instability around the Strait continues to disrupt global trade, drive up energy costs, and fuel economic crises worldwide.

Expert opinions reinforce the bleak outlook for a swift return to normal. DHL forecasts that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will take at least four to six months to normalize. Similarly, Björn Vang Jensen, head of ocean at EasySpeed International Logistics, suggests a "rule of thumb" that for every week the Strait is closed, one can expect a month of disruption.

Given the current IMF Portwatch data, the ongoing geopolitical tensions, continued maritime incidents, and expert assessments, the market's strong conviction in a 'No' outcome appears well-justified. It is highly improbable that the 7-day moving average of transit calls will reach 60 by the May 31 deadline.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-05-28 00:16 UTC | Polymarket ID: 1809560

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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