Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz Shipping Remains Stifled as May 15 Deadline Looms for Polymarket

A Polymarket prediction market on the return to normal shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by May 15 is heavily favoring a 'No' resolution, as recent data and geopolitical developments indicate a near-total collapse in vessel transits amid ongoing regional conflict.

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— 3 min read

The Polymarket prediction market, asking whether Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls by May 15, 2026, is currently trading at a stark 0.9975 for “No,” reflecting overwhelming market confidence that the threshold will not be met. This sentiment is strongly supported by recent reports detailing a severe and persistent disruption to one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints.

Market Context and Significance

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, is vital for global energy and trade, facilitating approximately 20-25% of all seaborne oil trade and a significant portion of global LNG shipments. The market resolves to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch data shows a 7-day moving average of transit calls (including container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships) at or above 60 for any date up to May 15. The current market odds suggest a near-certain failure to reach this benchmark.

Recent Developments and Traffic Collapse

The Strait has been experiencing an "effective closure" or "near-total collapse in traffic volume" since late February and early March 2026, stemming from an escalating conflict involving Iran and the US-Israel coalition. Daily commercial vessel transits, which were around 138 on April 30, 2026, plummeted to between 9 and 15 by May 2 and 3, representing a reduction of up to 94 percent. By May 6, open transits had fallen to "near zero vessels per day". Maritime intelligence firm Windward reported only nine commercial tanker transits on May 11, some linked to the "dark fleet" operating under obscured conditions.

This drastic reduction is attributed to a combination of factors, including documented attacks on commercial vessels, the withdrawal of protection and indemnity insurance, and Iran's expanded assertion of control over the Strait. Major shipping lines, such as Maersk, have suspended transits and advised against using the Strait due to the volatile security situation. Efforts for a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran have not yet provided "full maritime certainty," according to Maersk.

IMF Portwatch Data and Expert Opinion

Critically, the market’s resolution depends on data from IMF Portwatch. As of April 19, 2026, the Daily Transit Calls (7-Day Moving Average) for the Strait of Hormuz stood at a mere 12.00. The next update from IMF Portwatch was expected on May 12, 2026. Given the significant drop in traffic observed in early May, it is highly improbable that the 7-day moving average could surge to 60 by the May 15 deadline.

Analysts have echoed this grim outlook. Reports indicate that the probability of 20 ship transits a day by the end of May had already fallen to approximately 50%, with odds of an unrestricted shipping agreement dropping to just 10%. The expansion of Iran's control zone and the establishment of a new transit approval system are seen as institutionalizing the blockade, further reducing the likelihood of traffic normalization.

Implications of Current Odds

The current Polymarket price of 0.9975 for “No” signifies that traders perceive almost no chance of the 60-call threshold being met. This aligns with the factual information available, which paints a picture of extreme disruption and a lack of any immediate signs of recovery in commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the effective closure of both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea represent the most severe Middle East supply chain disruption in modern history.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-05-12 18:16 UTC | Polymarket ID: 2054133

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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