Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz: Polymarket Odds Soar to 98% as Iran Declares Closure Amid Escalating Conflict

A Polymarket prediction market on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by March 31 has seen 'Yes' odds surge to 98.35%, reflecting a de facto halt in shipping traffic following Iran's recent declaration of closure and a series of maritime attacks.

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The prediction market on Polymarket, asking "Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?", has reached a near-certainty for a 'Yes' resolution, with current prices indicating a 98.35% probability. This dramatic shift in market sentiment follows an intense escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which has seen Iran declare the vital waterway closed to international traffic and commercial shipping grind to a halt. The market, boasting a substantial trading volume of over $21.9 million, is set to resolve to 'Yes' if Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with 'severely restrict' defined as an 80% or greater decrease in the 7-day moving average of commercial vessel transits.

The crisis erupted around February 28, 2026, following joint military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iranian targets, which reportedly included the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran swiftly retaliated with missile and drone attacks targeting US, Israeli, and Gulf ally assets across the region.

In a significant development on March 2, 2026, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander announced via Iranian state media that the Strait of Hormuz was "closed," issuing stark warnings to "set ablaze" any vessel attempting passage. This declaration was reiterated on March 5 and March 8, with Iran specifying that the closure would apply to ships from the US, Israel, and their Western allies. While international law does not permit Iran to obstruct transit passage through an international strait, the IRGC's threats and actions have effectively disrupted shipping.

The impact on maritime traffic has been immediate and severe. As of March 2, vessel tracking data showed at least 150 tankers anchored in open Gulf waters, and by March 3, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had declined by approximately 80% compared to baseline levels. Major shipping companies, including Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd, have suspended transits through the Strait, rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days to journey times. Between February 28 and March 2, up to eight commercial vessels were struck or affected in the region, resulting in fatalities and injuries. Notably, the Palau-flagged tanker Skylight was struck on March 1, and on March 7, an IRGC-affiliated media outlet reported a drone attack on the Malta-flagged vessel Prima.

This de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz carries immense global implications. The Strait is a critical choke point through which approximately 20% of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply typically passes. The disruption has already led to a spike in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching $82/bbl by March 2. Experts, such as Bloomberg Economics, predict that a sustained closure could see Brent crude prices soar to $108/bbl. Beyond energy, concerns are mounting over a potential global food crisis, as a significant share of globally traded nitrogen fertilizer and the LNG required for its production also transits the Strait.

The current Polymarket odds reflect the undeniable reality on the ground: Iran's actions, coupled with the withdrawal of war-risk insurance and a drastic reduction in commercial transits, have effectively closed or severely restricted the Strait of Hormuz. The market's high probability for 'Yes' is well-supported by a consensus of credible reporting indicating that the conditions for resolution have largely been met. While the US has indicated a federal insurance backstop for Gulf shipping and the possibility of naval escorts, the immediate impact on commercial traffic has been decisive.

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Market data fetched at 2026-03-09 18:17 UTC | Polymarket ID: 1227361

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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