Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz: Polymarket Odds Heavily Favor Continued Disruption Through April

A Polymarket prediction market on the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to a 7-day average of 60 transit calls by April 30, 2026, currently shows a low 25.5% probability of 'Yes,' reflecting ongoing severe disruptions from recent geopolitical conflicts.

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— 3 min read

The critical Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a significant portion of global oil and gas trade, remains far from its normal shipping activity levels, with a Polymarket prediction market reflecting deep skepticism about a rapid recovery by the end of April. The market, titled "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?", will resolve to "Yes" if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above 60 for any date up to April 30, 2026. Current prices heavily favor a "No" outcome, trading at 0.745, implying only a 25.5% chance of normalcy being restored.

This pessimistic outlook stems from a severe disruption to maritime traffic that began on February 28, 2026. Following joint US and Israeli military strikes against Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliation, the Strait of Hormuz witnessed a dramatic collapse in shipping. Before the conflict, the strait typically saw between 75 and 125 commercial vessel transits per day. However, data from IMF Portwatch shows that daily vessel crossings plummeted by over 95% to an average of 6-7 ships per day in early March, a level that largely persisted through April 12, 2026.

The latest available data from IMF Portwatch, as of April 12, 2026, indicates the 7-day moving average of transit calls in the Strait of Hormuz stood at approximately 6.6. This figure is a stark contrast to the 60-call threshold required for the Polymarket to resolve "Yes." The ongoing geopolitical tensions have led major shipping companies, including Maersk, to suspend operations in the strait, and war risk insurance premiums have surged, with some insurers withdrawing coverage for war-related risks.

Despite a fragile ceasefire agreed between the United States and Iran on April 7, 2026, and Iranian officials signaling the strait is open under new protocols, a significant return to normalcy has not materialized. Reports as recent as April 9 and 10, 2026, indicate that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, with little sign of meaningful recovery in the energy supply chain. Furthermore, the risk dynamic appears to be shifting from temporary disruption to sustained Iranian oversight, potentially introducing long-term transit risks and cost pressures for shippers rather than a swift return to pre-conflict conditions.

Given the current 7-day moving average of approximately 6.6 and the short timeframe remaining until April 30, reaching the target of 60 transit calls per day is mathematically challenging. Even if daily transits were to see an immediate and substantial increase, the 7-day average would require a sustained volume far exceeding current levels. The prevailing market odds reflect this reality, with traders overwhelmingly betting against a full restoration of normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of the month.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-04-18 18:15 UTC | Polymarket ID: 1540766

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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