Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz Blockade: Polymarket Traders Bet on Last-Minute Trump Reversal Amidst High Stakes

With just over two days remaining, Polymarket traders are assigning a 65% probability to President Donald Trump announcing the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade by May 31, 2026, despite his recent hardline statements. The market hinges on a sudden, explicit announcement from the US government

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— 3 min read

The prediction market on Polymarket, currently trading at $7,600,825 in volume, poses a critical geopolitical question: Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? As of Friday, May 29, 2026, with the resolution deadline just over two days away, the 'Yes' outcome commands a 0.65 price, implying a 65% probability, while 'No' stands at 0.35.

This market operates under the premise that President Trump initiated a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 12, 2026. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital global chokepoint, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil trade, including significant volumes of crude oil and liquefied natural gas, passes daily. A sustained blockade would have severe economic repercussions worldwide, particularly for major Asian economies reliant on Middle Eastern energy.

Recent Developments and Tense Negotiations

News reports within this hypothetical 2026 timeline indicate a volatile situation. The US naval blockade, which began with partial restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz on April 13, 2026, has reportedly inflicted substantial economic damage on Iran, estimated at approximately $13 billion monthly and $435 million daily in lost economic activity. This pressure has led to oil field shutdowns and a weakening Iranian currency, with President Trump publicly stating in early May that Iran's economy was 'crashing.'

On May 6, 2026, President Trump announced a temporary pause in 'Project Freedom,' a military operation aimed at reopening the Strait. However, he explicitly stated that the naval blockade itself would remain in place, with the pause intended to facilitate diplomatic negotiations. This temporary halt did not meet the market's criteria for a 'Yes' resolution, which requires a clear and explicit announcement of the blockade being lifted or ended.

More recently, on May 24, 2026, reports suggested that the US and Iran were close to a deal that would end the conflict, reopen the Strait, and involve Iran relinquishing its highly enriched uranium. Despite these reports, President Trump cautioned against rushing into an agreement and affirmed that the blockade would 'remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.' This sentiment was echoed on May 27, 2026, when Trump stated that the Strait would be open to all under any deal, but he ruled out immediate sanctions relief. Most critically, on May 28, 2026, Trump dismissed reports of easing sanctions and, in response to a draft agreement reportedly detailing the lifting of the blockade, reiterated that 'nobody's going to control it, it's international waters,' signaling his rejection of such terms without a broader agreement.

Market Odds and Implications

The current Polymarket odds, with 'Yes' at 0.65, present a fascinating divergence from President Trump's recent public pronouncements. Despite his consistent statements that the blockade remains active and his reluctance to rush a deal, traders are assigning a significant 65% probability to an announcement lifting the blockade by the May 31 deadline. This suggests that market participants may be factoring in President Trump's known tendency for sudden, transactional policy shifts and dramatic announcements.

Given the immense economic pressure on Iran and the global energy crisis exacerbated by the blockade, a swift resolution could be seen as strategically advantageous, even if it comes after a period of hardline rhetoric. The high volume of trading ($7.6 million) underscores the intense interest and belief in the market's potential for rapid movement in the final hours.

As the deadline rapidly approaches, all eyes will be on official statements from President Trump, the US government, or the US military for any explicit declaration that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-05-29 18:17 UTC | Polymarket ID: 1972137

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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