Polymarket

Polymarket Weighs Near Certainty of Strait of Hormuz Closure Amid Escalating Iran War

A Polymarket prediction market indicates a near 100% probability that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, reflecting the current severe disruptions and de facto closure of the vital waterway due to ongoing regional conflict.

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— 3 min read

The Polymarket prediction market, which asks "Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?", is currently trading at an astonishing 0.9975 for a 'Yes' outcome, implying a 99.75% certainty that the critical maritime chokepoint will be closed or severely restricted by the deadline. This overwhelming market consensus aligns with recent, dramatic developments in the Middle East, indicating that the Strait is already effectively closed to international maritime traffic.

Since late February 2026, the region has been engulfed in what is being described as the "2026 Iran war," following joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran on February 28. Iran has retaliated with missile and drone attacks across the region and, crucially, its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the Strait of Hormuz "closed" on March 2, 2026. The IRGC has warned that any vessels belonging to the United States, Israel, or their allies attempting to pass through the Strait could be considered legitimate targets.

This declaration and the heightened security risks have led to a near-total cessation of commercial shipping through the Strait. Major container shipping lines, including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd, have suspended transits, with vessel-tracking data showing tanker traffic plummeting from approximately 70% to near zero. Hundreds of ships are reportedly anchored outside the Strait, unwilling to risk passage.

Further escalating the crisis, reports on March 11, 2026, indicate that Iran has deployed about a dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a move that significantly complicates any efforts to reopen the waterway. There have been confirmed attacks on commercial vessels, with at least seven mariners killed and several tankers damaged or set ablaze in incidents near the Strait since the conflict began.

Adding to the commercial impracticality of transit, major marine insurers cancelled war-risk coverage for Iranian waters and the Persian Gulf as of March 5, 2026. This withdrawal of insurance effectively renders the Strait commercially unnavigable for most operators, regardless of formal declarations.

Experts and analysts have highlighted the severe global economic repercussions of this closure. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint, through which approximately 20% of the world's daily oil supply and a significant portion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) normally transit. The disruption has already caused Brent crude oil prices to surge, with warnings that prolonged closure could push prices above $100 per barrel. QatarEnergy, a major LNG exporter, has declared force majeure on all LNG shipments following Iranian attacks on its facilities.

The Polymarket odds, therefore, reflect the reality on the ground: the Strait of Hormuz is, for all practical purposes, already closed or severely restricted to international maritime traffic due to Iran's actions and the prevailing security environment. With the deadline of March 31 fast approaching, the market anticipates a continuation of this critical disruption.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-03-11 17:08 UTC | Polymarket ID: 1227361

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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