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Polymarket Weighs Liverpool's EFL Cup Chances Against Struggling Tottenham

A Polymarket prediction market is live for today's EFL Cup clash between Liverpool FC and Tottenham Hotspur. Despite expert consensus favoring a Liverpool victory, current market odds suggest a more uncertain outcome for the home side.

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— 3 min read

As Liverpool FC prepares to host Tottenham Hotspur at Anfield today, September 15, 2026, in the third round of the EFL Cup, a Polymarket prediction market with a trading volume of $461,834 is keenly watched by enthusiasts. The market asks simply: "Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-15?" with current prices at 0.475 for "Yes" and 0.525 for "No", implying a slight leaning towards Liverpool not securing a victory in regular time.

Liverpool enters this cup tie with a mixed start to their 2026/2027 season under manager Andoni Iraola. In the Premier League, they sit 7th or 8th after three to four games, remaining unbeaten but with a tendency for draws. Their recent form includes three draws in their opening four Premier League matches, and a goalless draw against Fulham in their last league outing. However, they did secure a Champions League victory against Atletico Madrid recently, showcasing their ability to perform in knockout competitions. The Reds average two goals scored per game while conceding 1.3 in the Premier League.

In stark contrast, Tottenham Hotspur's start to the season has been deeply concerning. Under Roberto De Zerbi, Spurs are languishing at 17th or 18th in the Premier League table, having failed to secure a single win and, remarkably, failing to score a single goal in their opening four league fixtures. Their only recent solace came in the EFL Cup second round, where they comfortably beat Charlton Athletic 5-1. This poor league form will undoubtedly weigh on their confidence as they travel to Anfield, a venue where they have historically struggled.

The head-to-head record heavily favors Liverpool, who have won seven of their last ten encounters against Tottenham, with Spurs managing only two victories and one draw. Furthermore, Tottenham has only secured two wins in their last 20 meetings with Liverpool, highlighting Anfield's reputation as a fortress against the North London club.

Regarding team news, Liverpool will be without Cody Gakpo, Enrico Chiesa, and Hugo Ekitiké due to injuries, with Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni also long-term absentees. This could see opportunities for fringe players like teenager Rio Ngumoha. Tottenham, meanwhile, will be missing Micky van de Ven until late September, though Mohammed Kudus is expected to be available, and new signings Omar Marmoush and Savinho could feature. Given the demanding schedule, both managers are expected to rotate their squads.

Despite Liverpool's mixed league form, expert predictions overwhelmingly back them to win this EFL Cup tie. Betting odds from various sportsbooks, such as BetMGM, place Liverpool at -125 to win, implying a 55.6% probability of victory. Other bookmakers offer similar odds, with Liverpool to win at 1.85 or -128. Many analysts also anticipate a high-scoring affair, with "Both Teams to Score - Yes" and "Over 2.5 goals" being popular predictions, given the historical nature of this fixture.

The Polymarket odds, however, present a slightly different picture. With "Yes" at 0.475 and "No" at 0.525, the market is pricing in a 47.5% chance of a Liverpool win and a 52.5% chance they either draw or lose in regular time. This contrasts with the strong expert consensus and historical data favoring a Liverpool victory at home, suggesting that prediction market participants might be factoring in the potential for squad rotation in a cup competition or Liverpool's recent draws more heavily than traditional sports analysts. The market therefore presents an interesting divergence from conventional wisdom, with participants seemingly anticipating a tighter contest than many pundits predict.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-09-15 18:16 UTC | Polymarket ID: 4104838

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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