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Polymarket Traders Bet Against Tulsi Gabbard for 2028 GOP Nomination

A Polymarket prediction market shows exceptionally low odds for Tulsi Gabbard securing the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, despite her recent political shift and role in the Trump administration.

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A prediction market on Polymarket, asking "Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?", is currently reflecting an overwhelming consensus against her prospects. With a substantial trading volume of $15,048,600, the market's current prices stand at a stark 0.001 for "Yes" and 0.999 for "No," indicating an extremely low perceived probability of Gabbard securing the nomination among traders.

This market's resolution hinges on whether Gabbard wins and accepts the Republican Party's 2028 nomination for U.S. president, with official Republican Party sources serving as the resolution source. Any replacement of the nominee before election day would not alter the market's outcome.

Tulsi Gabbard's political journey has been notable for its significant shifts. A former Democratic U.S. Representative for Hawaii, she left the Democratic Party in 2022 to become an Independent, citing concerns about the party's direction. In October 2024, she officially joined the Republican Party and endorsed Donald Trump for the 2024 presidential election. Following Trump's victory, she was nominated and confirmed as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) in February 2025. However, she resigned from this high-profile role in May 2026, a move that fueled speculation about her future political ambitions, including a potential 2028 presidential bid.

Gabbard has consistently stated she "will never rule out any opportunity to serve my country" when questioned about her political future, keeping the door open for a presidential run. Her pivot to the Republican Party has involved aligning with conservative positions on issues such as abortion, environmental policy, and gun control, and she has become a prominent voice in conservative media, frequently appearing at events like CPAC.

Despite her rising profile within conservative circles and her past role in the Trump administration, prediction markets reflect a strong skepticism regarding her 2028 nomination chances. Other platforms, as of November 2026, show Gabbard trading at a mere 1% to win the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election and the Republican nomination. While some political strategists have mused about her potential as an "ideal candidate" or an "appealing running mate" due to her unique background and ability to connect with certain demographics, these opinions contrast sharply with the current market sentiment. Analysts note that she has yet to appear in national 2028 Republican primary surveys, further underscoring the long odds she would face in a crowded field.

The current Polymarket odds of 0.001 for a "Yes" resolution suggest that traders see virtually no path for Tulsi Gabbard to clinch the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. While her political journey demonstrates adaptability and a willingness to challenge the status quo, the prediction market signals that she remains a distant long shot for the GOP's top spot in the upcoming election cycle.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-11-06 18:16 UTC | Polymarket ID: 561976

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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