Polymarket

Polymarket Reflects US Open Upset: Daniel Merida Aguilar Defeats Andrey Rublev

A Polymarket prediction market tracking the US Open ATP match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Andrey Rublev has seen its odds swing dramatically, now overwhelmingly favoring Aguilar following his unexpected victory over the higher-ranked Russian.

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— 3 min read

The prediction market on Polymarket for the US Open ATP match between Spain's Daniel Merida Aguilar and Russia's Andrey Rublev, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026, at 11:00 AM ET, has effectively resolved with Daniel Merida Aguilar emerging as the victor. The market, which saw a significant trading volume of $2,208,274, now displays overwhelming odds of 0.9995 for Merida Aguilar and a mere 0.0005 for Rublev, reflecting the confirmed outcome of the second-round encounter.

This outcome represents a notable upset in the tournament. Andrey Rublev, currently ranked World No. 24, entered the match as the 23rd seed and a more established player on the ATP Tour, boasting 18 singles titles and multiple Grand Slam quarterfinal appearances. In contrast, Daniel Merida Aguilar, ranked World No. 39, is a rising talent who secured his first ATP Tour singles title at the 2026 Croatia Open earlier this year.

Rublev's path to the second round was arduous. He battled through a grueling five-set first-round match against lucky loser Otto Virtanen on August 31, 2026, ultimately winning 6-7, 6-7, 6-0, 6-2, 7-6 in nearly four hours. This demanding opener may have contributed to his performance in the subsequent round. Merida Aguilar, on the other hand, advanced to the second round by defeating Marton Fucsovics in straight sets (6-4, 6-4, 6-2) in his first main draw match at the US Open.

The match between Merida Aguilar and Rublev, their first professional head-to-head encounter, took place on September 2, 2026. Reports indicate that Merida Aguilar defeated Rublev with a score of 6-7, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4. Live updates during the match showed Merida Aguilar gaining momentum after losing the first set tie-break, eventually taking control of the subsequent sets. Andrey Rublev was observed reacting in frustration during the match, as captured in photographs from the event.

Prior to the match's conclusion, other betting platforms and prediction markets, such as Kalshi and ProphetX, showed Rublev as the favorite, with implied probabilities around 59% for his victory on September 1, 2026. The current Polymarket odds, therefore, are not speculative but rather a direct reflection of Merida Aguilar's confirmed advancement, effectively signaling the market's resolution. This outcome highlights the unpredictable nature of Grand Slam tennis and Merida Aguilar's growing prowess on the hard courts.

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Market data fetched at 2026-09-02 18:15 UTC | Polymarket ID: 4046601

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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