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Polymarket Predicts Uphill Battle for Mitch Landrieu's 2028 Democratic Nomination Hopes

A Polymarket prediction market places Mitch Landrieu's chances of securing the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at a mere 0.15%, despite his recent confirmation of considering a run.

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A prediction market on Polymarket, tracking the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, currently assigns former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu an exceptionally low probability of success. With over half a million dollars in trading volume, the market's 'Yes' outcome, indicating Landrieu wins the nomination, is priced at just $0.0015, translating to a 0.15% chance. Conversely, the 'No' outcome stands at $0.9985, reflecting a 99.85% expectation against his nomination.

This market's skeptical outlook comes despite recent news that Landrieu is actively contemplating a presidential bid. In interviews around September 23-24, 2026, Landrieu confirmed he is "seriously thinking about" running for president in 2028 and expects to make a decision by the end of the year, specifically after the upcoming midterm elections. He stated he would only enter the race if he believed he could win, govern effectively, and unite the country, emphasizing he would not pursue it as a mere "vanity project."

Landrieu, 66, boasts a significant political resume. He served two terms as Mayor of New Orleans from 2010 to 2018, overseeing the city's post-Hurricane Katrina recovery and gaining national attention for his decision to remove Confederate monuments, which earned him a John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award. Prior to that, he was Louisiana's Lieutenant Governor from 2004 to 2010. More recently, Landrieu served as Senior Advisor to President Biden for Infrastructure Implementation Coordination from November 2021 to January 2024, spearheading the rollout of the bipartisan infrastructure law. He also played a key role in the 2024 election cycle, becoming a national campaign co-chair for then-Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential campaign after President Biden's withdrawal.

Despite his extensive experience and prominence within Democratic circles, the Polymarket odds align with current expert assessments and early polling data. Major Democratic contenders like Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom consistently lead early 2028 primary polls. For instance, July 2026 polls show Harris with a strong lead, often in the 29-33% range, with Newsom as a distant second. A September 2026 "Prediction Edge" poll, which included potential candidates like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, and Gavin Newsom, listed Landrieu at 0.0%.

Landrieu himself acknowledges the formidable challenge, noting that he would be "starting from ground zero" without a formal campaign organization or established fundraising. Political analysts like LSU New Orleans political scientist Ed Chervenak recognize Landrieu's strong reputation and retail politics skills but highlight the need for him to build name recognition and an organization in what is expected to be a crowded Democratic field.

While Landrieu's exploration of a 2028 presidential run adds an intriguing dynamic to the nascent primary landscape, the current Polymarket odds and early polling reflect the significant hurdles he would face in securing the Democratic Party's nomination against more established frontrunners.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-09-25 06:15 UTC | Polymarket ID: 559704

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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