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Polymarket Predicts Uphill Battle for Likud as Israelis Cast Votes in Pivotal Election

A Polymarket prediction market on the 2026 Israeli legislative election shows low confidence in Likud winning the most seats, reflecting pre-election polls and high voter turnout on a day marked by critical national issues.

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— 3 min read

As Israelis head to the polls today, October 27, 2026, for a pivotal legislative election, a Polymarket prediction market tracking whether Likud will secure the most seats reflects significant skepticism. With a trading volume exceeding $3.1 million, the market currently prices a 'Yes' outcome for Likud at just 0.265 (26.5%) and a 'No' at 0.735 (73.5%), indicating a strong belief that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's party will not emerge as the largest faction in the 26th Knesset.

This market, set to resolve based on the party winning the greatest number of seats, is particularly relevant given the high stakes of today's vote. The election is the first since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks and comes amid ongoing conflicts in Gaza and with Iran, and deep domestic divisions over judicial reform and the cost of living. Polls are scheduled to close at 10 PM local time (8 PM GMT), with exit polls expected shortly thereafter, though official results won't be confirmed until November 4.

Recent developments leading up to Election Day have painted a challenging picture for Likud. Pre-election polls consistently suggested that Netanyahu's Likud and its right-wing coalition partners would fall short of a 61-seat majority in the 120-member Knesset. Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief and leader of the Yashar party, has emerged as Netanyahu's primary rival, with several final polls showing Yashar leading Likud by a narrow margin of 2-4 seats. For instance, a Channel 12 News poll just days before the election placed Yashar at 23 seats to Likud's 21. Other surveys indicated Likud tied for the most votes but still part of a bloc struggling to reach a majority.

Voter turnout has been remarkably high, with the Central Elections Committee reporting figures at various points throughout the day as the highest since 1973 or 1977. By 6 PM local time, nearly 67% of eligible voters had cast their ballots, a 9 percentage point increase from the same time in the 2022 election. This surge in participation, particularly in Arab communities and liberal strongholds, has reportedly raised concerns within Likud regarding potential voter apathy in its traditional strongholds.

The current Polymarket odds, which give Likud only a 26.5% chance of winning the most seats, align closely with the overall sentiment from pre-election polling and the observed dynamics on Election Day. This low probability underscores the widespread expectation that another party, likely Eisenkot's Yashar, will emerge as the largest single faction. However, the fragmented nature of Israeli politics means that even if Likud does not win the most seats, forming a stable government will likely involve complex and potentially lengthy coalition negotiations, with neither the Netanyahu-led bloc nor the opposition "change bloc" expected to secure an outright majority.

As polls close and the country awaits exit poll results, the Polymarket reflects a strong lean towards an outcome where Likud cedes its position as the largest party, setting the stage for a period of intense political maneuvering.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-10-27 18:15 UTC | Polymarket ID: 2100981

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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