Polymarket

Polymarket Predicts Uphill Battle for Belgium: Red Devils Face Long Odds in 2026 World Cup Bid

Despite advancing to the Round of 16 with a dramatic comeback, the Polymarket prediction market assigns Belgium a mere 1.45% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, reflecting widespread skepticism.

Admin

— 3 min read

The prediction market on Polymarket, asking "Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?", has seen substantial activity with over $95 million in trading volume. Currently, the market reflects a strong sentiment against a Belgian triumph, with the 'Yes' outcome priced at a low 0.0145, translating to an implied probability of just 1.45%. Conversely, the 'No' outcome stands at 0.9855, indicating that market participants overwhelmingly expect Belgium to fall short of lifting the trophy.

Belgium, currently ranked 10th in the FIFA Men's World Ranking as of July 1, 2026, has navigated a mixed, yet ultimately successful, path to the knockout stages. After drawing their first two Group G matches against Egypt and Iran, the Red Devils secured top spot with a dominant 5-1 victory over New Zealand. Their journey continued with a dramatic 3-2 comeback win against Senegal in the Round of 32, securing their place in the Round of 16 of the tournament hosted across the USA, Mexico, and Canada.

Under coach Rudi Garcia, the squad features prominent talents like Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, Jérémy Doku, Leandro Trossard, and Thibaut Courtois. While once lauded as a 'Golden Generation' that held the world No. 1 ranking from 2018 to 2022, the team is now largely considered to be in a transitional phase, blending experienced veterans with a younger wave of talent. This transition, coupled with lingering questions about defensive solidity, contributes to the market's cautious outlook.

Traditional bookmakers and analytical models offer varying, but generally pessimistic, views on Belgium's outright chances. Many bookmakers list Belgium at around 40/1 odds to win the World Cup, implying a probability of approximately 2.44%. This places them as a mid-tier contender, well behind favorites such as France, Argentina, Spain, England, and Brazil. Interestingly, some expert models, like Squawka's Signal, are slightly more optimistic, assigning Belgium a 3.2% chance of victory, which is notably higher than Polymarket's current 1.45% and Kalshi's 1.0%. However, general sentiment among some football enthusiasts remains low, with some online discussions suggesting their chances are "not even 1%."

Despite their recent dramatic victory and progression to the Round of 16, the Polymarket's current price of 0.0145 underscores a significant lack of confidence in Belgium's ability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. While individual brilliance and tactical prowess could see them make a deeper run, the market signals that a maiden World Cup triumph for the Red Devils remains a distant prospect.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-07-02 00:15 UTC | Polymarket ID: 558946

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

Read more