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Polymarket Predicts Slim Chances for Stephen Curry's 2025-26 NBA MVP Bid

A Polymarket prediction market places extremely low odds on Stephen Curry winning the 2025-26 NBA MVP award, reflecting the challenge of age and historical voting patterns for the Golden State Warriors' star.

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— 3 min read

The prediction market on Polymarket, "Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?", currently shows a stark imbalance, with the 'Yes' outcome trading at a minuscule 0.0005 and 'No' at 0.9995. This implies a collective belief that Stephen Curry's chances of securing the coveted Most Valuable Player award for the 2025-26 NBA season are exceedingly remote.

This market's resolution hinges on official NBA announcements, with a 'No' resolution triggered immediately if Curry is not named a finalist. The significant trading volume of over $2.5 million underscores the interest in this seemingly foregone conclusion, even as the odds heavily favor a 'No' outcome.

Several factors contribute to the market's current sentiment. As of the 2025-26 season, Stephen Curry will be 37 years old, turning 38 in March 2026. Historically, the NBA MVP award has predominantly favored younger players. The average age of NBA MVPs is just over 27 years old, and only Karl Malone has won the award at 35 years old. Notably, from 2007 to 2025, no player aged 30 or above has won the MVP award.

Curry's individual performance remains elite, even as he approaches the twilight of his career. In the 2023-24 season, he averaged 26.4 points, 5.1 assists, and 4.5 rebounds across 74 games, earning his tenth All-Star selection and the NBA's Clutch Player of the Year award. His performance in the 2024-25 season also saw him average 24.5 points, 6.0 assists, and 4.4 rebounds in 70 games, securing his eleventh All-Star nod. He also made his Olympic debut at the 2024 Paris Games, helping Team USA win a gold medal.

However, individual brilliance alone often isn't enough for an MVP campaign. Team success is a critical component, with most MVP winners leading their teams to a top seed and typically 50 or more wins. The Golden State Warriors' outlook for the 2025-26 season presents challenges. The departure of Klay Thompson in free agency means Curry will need to shoulder an even greater scoring burden. While the Warriors aim to remain competitive by blending their aging core (Curry, Draymond Green) with developing young talent like Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski, significant roster changes, including a potential pursuit of Jimmy Butler, are being discussed. Expectations for Curry's game to age gracefully due to his shooting-centric style persist.

Despite Curry's enduring talent and leadership, the confluence of his advanced age for an MVP candidate, the historical voting trends, and the Golden State Warriors' transitional phase makes a 2025-26 MVP victory an improbable outcome, as reflected by the current prediction market odds.

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Market data fetched at 2026-03-24 00:17 UTC | Polymarket ID: 564172

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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