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Polymarket Predicts Near-Zero Chance for Iraq to Lift 2026 FIFA World Cup Trophy

Despite Iraq's historic qualification for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, a Polymarket prediction market assigns a minuscule 0.05% chance of them winning the tournament, reflecting the monumental challenge ahead for the Lions of Mesopotamia.

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— 3 min read

The Polymarket prediction market, 'Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?', currently reflects an overwhelming consensus that the Lions of Mesopotamia are highly unlikely to clinch the coveted trophy. With a staggering trading volume of over $27 million, the market shows a 'Yes' price of just 0.0005, translating to a mere 0.05% probability, while the 'No' outcome stands at a dominant 0.9995. This stark disparity underscores the immense challenge Iraq faces in the upcoming tournament.

Iraq has, however, achieved a monumental feat by qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, ending a 40-year absence from football's biggest stage. They secured their spot on March 31, 2026, by defeating Bolivia 2-1 in a thrilling intercontinental playoff held in Monterrey, Mexico. This marks only the second time in history that Iraq will participate in the World Cup, with their sole previous appearance being in Mexico in 1986, where they exited in the group stage.

Under the guidance of Australian coach Graham Arnold, who took charge in late 2024, the Iraqi national team has shown renewed spirit and achieved this historic qualification. Arnold has expressed his team's ambition to 'surprise the world' at the tournament, emphasizing a winning mentality. The 2026 FIFA World Cup, co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, will be the largest ever, featuring an expanded format with 48 teams divided into 12 groups of four. The top two teams from each group, along with the eight best third-placed teams, will advance to a new Round of 32.

Despite their qualification triumph, Iraq faces a formidable task. They have been drawn into Group I, alongside football giants France, African powerhouse Senegal, and Norway. France, a former World Cup champion, is considered one of the strongest teams in the world. Iraq's opening match will be against Norway on June 16 in Boston, followed by a clash with France on June 22 in Philadelphia, and their final group stage game against Senegal on June 26 in Toronto.

In the latest FIFA World Rankings as of May 25, 2026, Iraq is positioned at 57th globally. While this is a respectable standing, it places them significantly lower than the traditional contenders for the World Cup title. Their highest ever FIFA ranking was 39th in October 2004. Recent form has seen Iraq win three of their last five matches, including their playoff victory over Bolivia and a friendly win against Andorra on May 29, 2026. They are scheduled to play a friendly against Spain on June 4, 2026, as part of their final preparations.

Given the strength of their group opponents, their historical performance in World Cups, and their current FIFA ranking, the Polymarket odds accurately reflect the long shot Iraq faces in winning the entire tournament. While qualification is a cause for national celebration and a significant step forward for Iraqi football, a deep run to the final, let alone winning it, would constitute one of the greatest upsets in World Cup history.

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Market data fetched at 2026-06-01 00:15 UTC | Polymarket ID: 558982

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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