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Polymarket Predicts Chong Won-oh Loss as Seoul Mayoral Race Nears Conclusion with Oh Se-hoon Leading

A Polymarket prediction market on the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election, with over $3.9 million in trading volume, is signaling a strong belief that Chong Won-oh will not win, as incumbent Oh Se-hoon has dramatically overtaken him in the final stages of vote counting.

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— 3 min read

The 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election, held on June 3, 2026, has proven to be a nail-biting contest, with incumbent People Power Party (PPP) candidate Oh Se-hoon staging a remarkable comeback to lead against Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) challenger Chong Won-oh. This dramatic shift in the vote count closely aligns with the prevailing sentiment on Polymarket, where the prediction market for Chong Won-oh's victory currently shows a negligible probability.

The Polymarket question, "Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election?", has attracted significant attention, with a substantial trading volume of $3,957,296. The current prices reflect overwhelming skepticism about Chong Won-oh's chances, with "Yes" trading at 0.0135 (approximately 1.35% probability) and "No" at 0.9865 (approximately 98.65% probability). This market is set to resolve based on the official election results, or by January 31, 2027, if the outcome remains unknown.

Initial exit polls released shortly after polling stations closed on Wednesday, June 3, had painted a different picture. Major broadcasters KBS, MBC, and SBS jointly projected Chong Won-oh to win the Seoul mayoral race with 51.4% of the vote, against Oh Se-hoon's 46%. This initial forecast suggested a significant victory for the ruling Democratic Party, bolstering President Lee Jae Myung's political mandate following his first year in office. Chong, a former three-term head of Seoul's Seongdong District, had campaigned on issues like improving commutes and addressing housing concerns.

However, as vote counting progressed through the night and into the early hours of Thursday, June 4, the narrative dramatically shifted. While Chong Won-oh held a substantial lead in the early stages, sometimes by as much as 30 percentage points, Oh Se-hoon steadily narrowed the gap. This surge was particularly pronounced as ballots from conservative-leaning districts south of the Han River, including Gangnam, Seocho, and Songpa, were tallied.

By approximately 7:17 AM KST on June 4, with nearly 96% of votes counted, Oh Se-hoon officially overtook Chong Won-oh, securing 48.79% of the vote compared to Chong's 48.49%. The margin between the two candidates was reported as a narrow 14,923 votes. Further reports around 8:00 AM KST confirmed Oh Se-hoon's lead with 48.77% against Chong Won-oh's 48.51% with 95.83% of votes counted. This made the race too close to call for many hours, highlighting the intensity of the competition.

The Polymarket odds, which had already heavily favored a "No" outcome for Chong Won-oh, are now strongly validated by these latest developments. The market's collective intelligence appears to have accurately anticipated the final outcome, despite initial exit poll projections. The Seoul mayoral election is a critical indicator of public sentiment, especially given the political landscape following the removal of former President Yoon Suk Yeol, which had left the People Power Party in disarray. Oh Se-hoon, a veteran politician who previously served two terms and returned to the position in 2021, is now on the cusp of securing another term, defying earlier predictions and solidifying his position in Seoul's political landscape.

As the final votes are tallied, the Polymarket community's strong lean against a Chong Won-oh victory seems all but confirmed by the unfolding election results, demonstrating the platform's ability to reflect real-time political shifts.

Sources:

Market data fetched at 2026-06-04 00:17 UTC | Polymarket ID: 678937

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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