Polymarket

Polymarket Bets Heavily on Alavés Win in Crucial La Liga Clash Against Relegated Oviedo

A Polymarket prediction market shows a strong 71.5% probability for Deportivo Alavés to defeat Real Oviedo in their May 17, 2026 La Liga fixture, a match critical for Alavés's survival against an already relegated opponent. However, some expert predictions diverge, forecasting a draw.

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The world of sports prediction markets is buzzing around today's crucial La Liga encounter, May 17, 2026, between Deportivo Alavés and Real Oviedo. A Polymarket prediction market, with a significant trading volume of $1,508,039, is currently pricing a Deportivo Alavés victory at 0.715, implying a 71.5% chance of them securing three points. Conversely, the odds for a 'No' outcome (Alavés not winning) stand at 0.285, or 28.5%.

This market's high stakes are rooted in the current La Liga standings. Deportivo Alavés finds itself in 16th position with 40 points, fiercely battling to avoid relegation and secure their place in the Spanish Primera Division. Their opponents, Real Oviedo, are at the bottom of the table in 20th place with just 29 points, a position that has already condemned them to relegation from the top flight. This stark difference in motivation is a primary driver for the market's strong lean towards an Alavés win.

Recent form further supports the market's sentiment for Alavés. The team from Vitoria-Gasteiz recently pulled off a notable upset, defeating champions Barcelona 1-0 on May 13, 2026, following a 1-1 draw with Elche just days before. This indicates a fighting spirit and capability to perform under pressure. Real Oviedo, on the other hand, has endured a dismal run, failing to secure a win in their last five matches and collecting only two points during that period, including a recent 0-2 defeat to Real Madrid.

However, the path to victory for Alavés is not without potential hurdles. Both teams are grappling with key absences due to injuries and suspensions. Deportivo Alavés will be without forward Lucas Boye due to suspension and Mariano Diaz due to an ankle injury, while goalkeeper Raul Fernandez is doubtful. Real Oviedo also faces challenges, with defender Eric Bailly suspended and midfielders Leander Dendoncker and Ovie Ejaria doubtful or out with injuries.

Interestingly, while the Polymarket odds heavily favor Alavés, some expert analyses present a different perspective. Forebet, for instance, predicts a 1-1 draw for today's match. This contradicts the strong 'Yes' probability on Polymarket and aligns with their last La Liga encounter on January 4, 2026, which also ended in a 1-1 draw. Alavés's away form also presents a mixed picture, having lost 55% of their away games this campaign.

Considering Alavés's desperate fight for survival, their recent upset victory against Barcelona, and Oviedo's confirmed relegation status and poor form, the Polymarket's current price of 0.715 for an Alavés win reflects a strong belief in their ability to secure the necessary points. However, the historical head-to-head draw and a dissenting expert prediction introduce an element of uncertainty, suggesting that while the odds are stacked, an upset or a stalemate remains a possibility in this pivotal La Liga fixture.

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Market data fetched at 2026-05-17 18:17 UTC | Polymarket ID: 2172307

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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