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Mbappé's Golden Boot Hopes Dim on Polymarket After France's World Cup Exit

Kylian Mbappé's chances of being the 2026 FIFA World Cup's top goalscorer have seen a significant shift on Polymarket, with 'Yes' odds dropping to 36.5% following France's semi-final elimination. Despite being tied with Lionel Messi on eight goals, Mbappé's reduced playing time compared to Messi's u

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The prediction market on Polymarket, asking "Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?", has witnessed substantial movement, with the 'Yes' outcome currently trading at 0.365 (36.5%) and 'No' at 0.635 (63.5%). This notable decline in Mbappé's implied probability comes after France's recent 2-0 defeat to Spain in the World Cup semi-finals on July 14, 2026, effectively concluding his main tournament run.

Mbappé, who previously clinched the Golden Boot at the 2022 World Cup with eight goals, has once again demonstrated his prolific scoring ability, matching that tally with eight goals in the current tournament. His exceptional form extends beyond the international stage, having netted an impressive 49 goals for Real Madrid across all competitions in the 2025/2026 season. Early in the tournament, and even heading into the semi-finals, Mbappé was widely considered the favorite, with some sportsbooks placing his implied probability as high as 58.33% (-140 odds) just days before France's elimination.

However, the landscape of the Golden Boot race dramatically shifted with France's exit. Mbappé is currently tied with Argentina's Lionel Messi, both boasting eight goals. Crucially, while Mbappé can only add to his tally in the third-place playoff, Messi's Argentina is set to compete in the World Cup final, providing him with a direct opportunity to surpass Mbappé.

The market's resolution hinges on FIFA's official rules for determining the top goalscorer. In the event of a tie on goals, FIFA prioritizes the player with the most assists. Currently, Mbappé holds an advantage in this regard, having registered two assists compared to Messi's count. Should a tie persist after considering assists, the market rules specify that the player with fewer goals from penalty kicks would be favored, followed by alphabetical order of their last name.

Other notable contenders in the Golden Boot race included Erling Haaland of Norway, who was eliminated with seven goals, and England's Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, both with six goals. However, with the tournament nearing its climax, the contest is now largely perceived as a two-horse race between Mbappé and Messi. The current Polymarket odds reflect the significant impact of France's elimination, with bettors now leaning towards the 'No' outcome, anticipating Messi or another player to potentially edge out Mbappé in the final stages of the competition.

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Market data fetched at 2026-07-15 06:16 UTC | Polymarket ID: 2069638

This article is generated by AI for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from Polymarket and public web sources.

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