Polymarket
Polymarket Predicts Low Probability of U.S. Invasion of Iran Before 2027 Amid Escalating Conflict
Despite an ongoing 'war' involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, and heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, Polymarket traders currently assign a low 18.5% probability to the U.S. launching a full-scale invasion of Iran by year-end 2026.